Our Fincom partner in Portugal, ALL Comunicação, provides a deep-dive into the fallout from this week’s elections, which marked a political turning point with profound implications for the nation’s future.
Insights from José Aguiar (Partner) and José Pedro Mozos (Head of Public Affairs), ALL Comunicação.
A Political Earthquake
In what can only be described as a political earthquake, Portugal’s party system has undergone a historic transformation. For the first time in modern history, the right-wing bloc alone has secured a two-thirds majority in Parliament — a supermajority that effectively grants them the unprecedented authority to amend the Constitution of the Portuguese Republic.
The longstanding bipartisanship between the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (now part of the Democratic Alliance, AD) has come to a definitive end. Chega, a radical right-wing party, appears to have overtaken the PS in parliamentary strength — a development that has stunned the political establishment.
The Right Takes Command
The newly elected Parliament paints a clear picture: the right-wing has never held such dominance. The coalition of AD, Chega, and Iniciativa Liberal now commands a qualified majority, placing them in a position to shape Portugal’s legislative and constitutional future in ways never before seen.
Luís Montenegro, leader of AD, took a bold gamble by calling early elections — and it paid off. With 89 seats compared to the PS’s 58, Montenegro has secured a significant political victory. However, lacking an outright majority, his government will rely on delicate negotiations and shifting alliances to pass legislation.
Montenegro’s Statesmanlike Approach
Despite the victory, Montenegro struck a measured and statesmanlike tone in his post-election address. He appealed for responsibility from the opposition, called for national stability, and reaffirmed his commitment to governing with diligence and prudence. His leadership will now be tested in a Parliament that is more fragmented and unpredictable than the seat count alone might suggest.
The Collapse of the Left
On the left, the political landscape has fragmented. The PS has recorded its worst electoral performance in over four decades. Party leader Pedro Nuno Santos resigned following the defeat, acknowledging the weight of the loss. His departure ushers in a period of reflection and reconfiguration within the Socialist Party.
The Left Bloc was reduced to a single MP, the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) lost significant ground, and while Livre managed to resist and even grow slightly, it was not enough to offset the broader erosion. For the first time, a regional party — Juntos Pelo Povo — won a seat in Parliament, thanks to support in Madeira. While this does not shift the national balance of power, it signals an appetite for locally rooted representation.
Chega’s Meteoric Rise
Chega, under the leadership of André Ventura, surged to more than 22% of the national vote — a dramatic rise that places the party level with, or possibly ahead of, the PS. If final results, including emigrant votes, confirm that Chega has overtaken the PS, Ventura could claim the title of opposition leader.
Even without leading the government, Chega has asserted enormous influence. Ventura’s campaign captured widespread discontent, positioned the party as a populist alternative, and galvanised voters seeking a clean break from the status quo.
Institutional and Media Implications
The implications of this election extend beyond Parliament. Portugal’s media landscape, long structured around a centrist, bipartisan model, must now adapt. New political forces demand representation, insight, and sharper analysis — both in legislative forums and in the public discourse.
This shift calls for media institutions to reconsider their commentary panels, introduce fresh voices, and more accurately reflect the evolving political spectrum. Renewing public trust in the media may depend, in part, on its willingness to engage with and represent this new reality.
A New Era of Uncertainty and Possibility
Although the final composition of Parliament awaits confirmation from the emigrant vote, the essential transformation is already evident: Portugal has entered a new era of political instability, realignment, and possibility. The longstanding left–right duopoly has fractured, taking with it the political predictability of past decades.
Whether this leads to deeper democratic renewal or greater institutional volatility remains to be seen. What is certain, however, is that Portugal — and those observing its politics — must prepare for a fundamentally altered political future.
